Trump’s $100,000 H-1B fee is just the latest hurdle for AI talent in the U.S.
In a January article for Fortune tied to the inauguration, I deeply researched the ‘sense of panic’ felt by immigrant AI talent who worried Trump could make an already broken visa system worse
When the news hit of President Trump’s new $100,000 fee for high-skill H-1B visa holders, I immediately harked back to a deep-dive piece I wrote for Fortune in January, which was published the day after Trump’s inauguration: ‘A sense of panic’: Immigrant AI talent worry Trump could make an already broken visa system worse
The story dug into a broader crisis beyond questions around H-1B: outdated visa rules, massive backlogs, and country quotas that trap highly skilled immigrants—including leaders at Google, Nvidia, Meta, and startups like Perplexity—at the very moment the U.S. depends on them to fuel its AI boom. With Trump back in the White House and his immigration stance uncertain, fears mounted that the system could get even tougher, threatening both individual lives and America’s competitiveness in AI.
From lottery ‘win’ to years of limbo
For example, I interviewed Mahesh Babu Munjala, a native of India who works with data and AI at a biopharmaceutical company in Florida. He felt lucky to win the highly-coveted H-1B visa lottery in 2017. It was his third try to get the skilled worker permit after his student visa expired shortly after graduating with a Master’s in computer science.
It turns out only 30% to 40% of employer-sponsored applicants have typically succeeded each year in getting H-1Bs, which last up to six years and are issued to only 85,000 people annually. In 2024, the approval rate was even lower: 26%.
But for Munjala, obtaining the H-1B was the least of the hurdles he still must jump through in an effort to remain in the U.S. long-term. As it turns out, being an AI leader at a company that’s a healthcare trailblazer and in an industry in dire need of top AI talent, only carries so much weight.
In August 2024, Munjala applied for another of what is an alphabet soup of visas: A permanent residency card for people with extraordinary abilities known as the EB-1A—nicknamed the Einstein Visa— that lets holders bypass the regular green card queue that has a much longer wait. However, in December, his application was denied.
Since Munjala is among the few experts in data analytics for rare diseases and blood plasma, and had also reviewed others’ research papers in top journals, he was surprised and disappointed by the rejection. If his expertise and impact doesn’t meet the bar, what does?
“I led projects that impacted millions of people who take flu vaccines, plasma therapies and gene therapy product releases to market,” Munjala said.
Now he’s in limbo. He extended his temporary visa, sponsored by his employer, CSL, and plans to reapply for the Einstein visa. However, due to quotas for Indian applicants and a backlog for those applicants stretching several decades, Munjala has little hope of getting a green card for permanent residency even though his employer is trying to help.
In the meantime, he’s anxious about his future and, though he considers his job secure, must live with a certain uneasiness about what would happen if he’s ever laid off. If jobless, he would only have 60 days to find a new position at a company that’s willing to take over sponsorship of his H-1B. Otherwise, he’d have to leave the country.
“Sometimes it’s all too much to keep in mind and work at the same time,” Munjala told me.
Trapped in a byzantine immigration system
While the White House said yesterday that the new $100,000 fee would only apply to new H-1B applicants — not current visa holders — I was absolutely gobsmacked back in January to find out how outdated visa policies, massive backlogs of visa applications, and political uncertainty have heightened fears among the very workers fueling the U.S. AI boom. Despite their contributions, many AI specialists—even top talent at Google, Nvidia, Meta, OpenAI, and Walmart—find themselves trapped in a byzantine immigration system full of red tape, country-based quotas, and bureaucrats who struggle to grasp the fast-changing AI landscape.
For my Fortune story, I spoke to several immigration lawyers who enlightened me about what it takes for skilled immigrants to navigate the visa process. Already frustrated and confused, many said their clients feared that it could get even worse over the next four years.
“We should not need to jump through this many hoops just to get a highly qualified person a green card,” said Amber Davis, a Boston-based immigration lawyer.
As it is, many skilled immigrants give up because of the convoluted visa process or are forced to leave. Davis gave me the example of one client, an AI engineering leader who has worked at several Fortune 500 companies. The individual had to leave the U.S. because they maxed out on their H-1B visa renewals and their application for a permanent visa was denied. “It’s very arbitrary,” said Davis, who added that her client, with few options to return, has had to remain outside the U.S. for over a year.
Even some well-known AI leaders have been affected. For example, Aravind Srinivas, CEO of Perplexity AI—a startup that is among Silicon Valley’s buzziest (definitely check out my Fortune colleague Jeremy Kahn’s recent article on Perplexity that also ran in our September print edition)—posted on X in October that he has been waiting for a decision about his Einstein Visa application for over three years. On paper, at least, he has a long track record at many of the most successful companies in tech. Srinivas has a PhD in computer science from the University of California at Berkeley, was an intern at OpenAI in the company’s early days and then worked at Google’s AI division, DeepMind, before founding Perplexity. But his visa application is on hold due to quotas based on his country of birth, India.
Few merit-based pathways
The reality is that there are relatively few merit-based pathways for top immigrant AI talent to get U.S. work visas. Most green cards issued each year are granted based on family ties to people who are already legally in the U.S. In contrast, only about 14% of green cards, or 140,000, are allocated for employment-based applicants, most of whom need an existing job offer to qualify.
Of those, the only truly merit-based permanent visas leading to a green card—the several categories of what’s known as the EB-1—are capped at approximately 40,000 annually.
In addition to these visas, which include the Einstein Visa, there is the highly-competitive O-1 visa, that is also for those with extraordinary ability. The O-1 visa, however, like the H-1B, is temporary—though it can be renewed every three years indefinitely. But it comes with risks. For example, I spoke with Sarah Allali, a French national, recently secured an O-1 visa to work on her early-stage AI startup, Floode. But because her visa was granted based on her startup’s funding, its success isn’t just a business concern—it’s a legal one. If the company fails and she’s forced to shut it down, her visa could be invalid. “My visa is tied to my company,” Allali said. “I would have to leave the country.”
The truth is, I was inspired to write this article not only because of what was predicted to happen under the Trump Administration, but the already-existing challenges with current immigration policies.
For example, merit-based visas often require researchers and engineers to cite published work or patents as evidence of their expertise. While this is straightforward for academics, AI professionals at today’s top tech companies and labs frequently work on proprietary projects, preventing them from publicly sharing their contributions.
That means even a high-paid Google vice president may have to come up with other ways to make their value clear. “The fact they got to Google, it doesn’t cut it anymore,” said Gupta. “You still have to prove you’re at the very top, that you’re special.”
One Amazon AI product leader from India who holds a Master’s degree, and who works at the company’s cloud computing division AWS, said U.S. immigration officials typically evaluate AI workers seeking merit-based visas from a research, not a business, perspective. Doing so puts an important layer of AI workers—those focused more on the business side—at a huge disadvantage. “They have a certain way, like we need people to have scientific and research papers, and only then will we give them an EB-1A,” said the product leader, who asked to remain anonymous so as not to jeopardize his H-1B status. “If a business person like me comes in and says, ‘I’m so critical for business,’ they will probably reject me.”
Many top AI workers therefore spend their evenings and weekends on “profile building”—judging at hackathons, speaking at conferences, landing media coverage—to pad their resumes to meet the stringent eligibility criteria for the most competitive merit-based visas. Even employees who are key product leaders working on a flagship AI product must still show proof that they are well-known in their fields for their work.
Anxiety and uncertainty
The Amazon employee I spoke with still has three years left on his H-1B visa, but his wife only has two. Normally, H-1B visa holders can have their company apply on their behalf for another temporary visa that extends their stay until they can apply for a green card.
But because of legal restrictions, companies that have had recent layoffs, as Amazon has, often must pause petitions for H-1B or other employer-sponsored visas in occupations affected by the job cuts. Those employers are required to show that hiring foreign workers won’t hurt the job opportunities of U.S. workers. “So that’s another whole level of anxiety and complexity,” the Amazon employee said about his own future.
The uncertainty, he added, affects simple things that others may not even think about— whether to contribute to a 401k, buy a house, or even buy large appliances, with the knowledge that one might have to leave the country. “It impacts your basic personal finance 101,” he said.
And even though Trump says the new $100,000 fee will not apply to current H-1B holders trying to get back into the U.S., even back in January immigrant talent was already playing it safe. Munjala, the biopharmaceutical AI specialist, told me doesn’t want to risk leaving the U.S. to visit his parents in India and show off his two children, one of whom—a 10-month-old daughter—they’ve never met in person.
Like many temporary visa holders, Munjala feared that Trump would quickly act on his promise to upend U.S. immigration laws and block the return of legal temporary visa holders who happen to be outside the country. If so, he could suddenly be unable to return to the U.S., where both of his children are citizens.
“Being trapped outside the U.S. would be incredibly stressful, especially with two young kids ,” he said in a text message. “The strain on the entire family would be immense, with the added worry of our homes and financial investments, and the uncertainty about how my U.S. career could be affected. It would feel like everything we’ve worked for is at risk.”